Whether you can win a question is decided by who is in the top ten for it and how they compare with you, page by page. Not by a difficulty score, and not by how big your site is in general. A site with about 8,600 monthly visits out-ranks much bigger domains on plenty of long-tail questions and loses to them on every head term. Both are normal, and the map has to say which is which.
The same-size test
I call the check 'the same-size test'. Open the results for the question and ask one thing: are there sites my size or smaller in the top ten? If yes, Google is already willing to rank a site like yours for it. If the ten are all brands you have heard of, it is not, yet.
The rule: if sites your size or smaller are in the top ten, the question is winnable now. If only giants are there, build up to it or leave it. The consequence is that winnability is per question, never per site. Your map ends up with a mix of "now" and "later" pages, and the order of work writes itself: the near-the-money gaps marked "now" first.
There are four things to read off a results page, and they are kept separate on purpose. A single score would hide the one that matters for that question.
| Check | What to look for | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Can an article win here at all? | The shape: guides and roundups, or shops, or forum threads | Wrong shape: skip, or build the other kind of page |
| 2. Who is there, and how big are they compared with you? | Count the top ten that are your size or smaller | Two or more: now. None: later |
| 3. Is anyone actually answering the question? | Read the top three. Often they circle it | Nobody answers it: that is your opening, even against bigger sites |
| 4. Where do you already rank? | Search Console impressions for the page's keywords | Already ranking: improve the page instead of writing a new one |
Size decides the head terms and barely decides the tail. On one niche map I measured, a site with roughly 8,605 estimated monthly organic visits out-ranks domains with a median of 15,852 visits, a 90th percentile of 432,370, and one above 203 million, on questions where those sites did not answer well. About 40,000 ranked positions went into that comparison. The honest limit: questions the same-size test calls winnable go on to rank about 1.2 times as often as the base rate. That is enough to order a list of gaps. It is nowhere near enough to promise a position, and nobody honest will promise you one.
Worked example: one niche map, roughly 40,000 ranked positions
Step by step
- Search the page's main question in a private window. Not the topic, the question. Winnability changes from one question to the next inside the same topic.
- For each of the ten domains, mark bigger, similar, or smaller than you. A brand you know is bigger. A blog you have never heard of is similar or smaller. A traffic estimator makes it exact, your judgement gets you most of the way.
- Count the similar-or-smaller ones. Two or more: now. One: probably. None: later.
- Read the top three and ask whether anyone answers the question properly. Often they don't. A clear answer from a smaller site beats a vague one from a bigger site more often than the industry admits.
- Check Search Console for impressions on the page's keywords. Already ranking means the page exists and needs improving, not replacing.
- Write the verdict on the map. Now, later, skip, or already. That mark plus distance to money is the whole prioritisation.
- Re-check the "later" pages every six months. As the topic fills in, head terms that were closed open up. A new site lives on the long tail for a year or two. That is the plan working, not the plan failing.
When you need this, and when you don't
You need this for every gap on the map before it goes on the schedule. Two minutes per page, and it saves you from writing the page that sits on page three for a year.
You don't need it for pages you already rank for, and you don't need a difficulty score at all. For long-tail questions the score is usually absent, and the test above reads the thing the score was trying to estimate.
Next
- Next page: What to build first. Distance to money, winnability and a calendar you will actually keep.
- The free What Ranks Here tool runs check 1 and shows you who holds the top ten for any keyword.
- SitePerfector runs all four checks on every keyword in the map and names the sites you would be out-ranking. The competitor view is on Pro: Competitor landscape.